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We've heard that a home team gets 3 points in the spread. We've all said things like, "I want to pick the Packers, but I don't know, the Giants are home..."
But, the truth is, none of us know if home field really means all that much......until now.
I analyzed some results from 2003 through 2010 and tried to quantify the actual value of home field advantage. First I looked at hard numbers – which teams won most frequently at home? Then I tried to differentiate a team's quality at home versus on the road.
The Raw Data
The table below shows each team's home winning percentage between 2003 and 2010.
| Team | Home Win % |
|---|---|
| New England Patriots | 86% |
| Indianapolis Colts | 81% |
| Baltimore Ravens | 77% |
| Pittsburgh Steelers | 72% |
| San Diego Chargers | 69% |
| Seattle Seahawks | 69% |
| Minnesota Vikings | 67% |
| Chicago Bears | 64% |
| Denver Broncos | 63% |
| Philadelphia Eagles | 63% |
| Jacksonville Jaguars | 61% |
| Atlanta Falcons | 61% |
| Green Bay Packers | 61% |
| Dallas Cowboys | 61% |
| Cincinnati Bengals | 57% |
| Kansas City Chiefs | 56% |
| Tennessee Titans | 56% |
| Arizona Cardinals | 55% |
| New York Jets | 55% |
| Carolina Panthers | 55% |
| New York Giants | 52% |
| New Orleans Saints | 52% |
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 52% |
| San Francisco 49ers | 50% |
| Houston Texans | 50% |
| Buffalo Bills | 45% |
| Washington Redskins | 45% |
| St Louis Rams | 44% |
| Miami Dolphins | 42% |
| Cleveland Browns | 39% |
| Detroit Lions | 38% |
| Oakland Raiders | 34% |
As you can see, the Patriots, Colts and Ravens had the three highest home win percentages since 2003. The Cleveland Browns, Detroit Lions, and the Oakland Raiders have the three lowest percentages at home.
Well, that proves it....Gillette Stadium provides the biggest home field advantage of any field in the NFL - followed by Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis. Right? Well, not really. It doesn't take a rocket scientist to realize that the reason the Patriots and Colts have the highest when percentages at home is because (drumroll please) they're really good and win most of their games no matter where they're playing.
A better way to measure is to compare home winning percentages to their away when percentages.
Comparison of home win percentage verse away when percentage
The table below shows both the home and away when percentage for every team in the NFL between 2003 and 2010. The third column provides a ratio of home winning percentage versus away winning percentage.
| Team | Home % | Away % | Ratio |
|---|---|---|---|
| Detroit Lions | 38% | 16% | 2.40 |
| San Francisco 49ers | 50% | 22% | 2.29 |
| Arizona Cardinals | 55% | 27% | 2.06 |
| Seattle Seahawks | 69% | 36% | 1.91 |
| Baltimore Ravens | 77% | 41% | 1.88 |
| Minnesota Vikings | 67% | 39% | 1.72 |
| Houston Texans | 50% | 30% | 1.68 |
| Kansas City Chiefs | 56% | 36% | 1.57 |
| Cincinnati Bengals | 57% | 38% | 1.52 |
| Jacksonville Jaguars | 61% | 41% | 1.50 |
| St Louis Rams | 44% | 30% | 1.47 |
| Oakland Raiders | 34% | 23% | 1.47 |
| Chicago Bears | 64% | 45% | 1.41 |
| Cleveland Browns | 39% | 28% | 1.39 |
| Denver Broncos | 63% | 45% | 1.38 |
| Atlanta Falcons | 61% | 45% | 1.34 |
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 52% | 39% | 1.32 |
| Buffalo Bills | 45% | 34% | 1.32 |
| New York Jets | 55% | 44% | 1.25 |
| San Diego Chargers | 69% | 56% | 1.25 |
| Pittsburgh Steelers | 72% | 58% | 1.24 |
| Washington Redskins | 45% | 38% | 1.21 |
| Tennessee Titans | 56% | 47% | 1.20 |
| New England Patriots | 86% | 72% | 1.20 |
| Green Bay Packers | 61% | 52% | 1.18 |
| Dallas Cowboys | 61% | 53% | 1.15 |
| Carolina Panthers | 55% | 48% | 1.13 |
| Indianapolis Colts | 81% | 73% | 1.11 |
| Philadelphia Eagles | 63% | 62% | 1.01 |
| Miami Dolphins | 42% | 44% | 0.96 |
| New Orleans Saints | 52% | 55% | 0.95 |
| New York Giants | 52% | 56% | 0.94 |
According the results in the table above, the Detroit Lions have the largest home field advantage. The Lions win 2.4 times and as many games at home (38%) as they do on the road (16%).
That's interesting, but it's really a function of the fact that Detroit has the worst winning percentage overall during this time. San Francisco and Arizona are second and third in the ratio between home and away winning percentage, but they are 29th and 25th respectively in overall winning percentage during this time period. All won less than 30% of their road games - making the home field advantage look stronger than it probably was.
The list starts to get interesting at numbers four, five and six - Seattle, Baltimore, and Minnesota. The three teams ranked 15th, sixth and 12th respectively in winning percentage during the time period analyzed. Yet each of them had a clear advantage at home. Each team won over 65% of their home games - while winning 41% or fewer of their road games.
The Patriots and Colts are both in the bottom ten. This is because the Colts (73% home win percentage) and Patriots (72%) are the league's two best road teams - again, this a function of their being good overall.
The Dolphins, Saints and Giants have the worst home field advantages of all teams.......with better winning percentages on the road than at home.
2 comments:
I ran a similar study a few years ago, and my top three teams were Green Bay (OK), Detroit (waah?), and Kansas City (OK). For Detroit, I think it's a factor of them being so awful on the road than being so great at home. Not sure if that means "home-field advantage" or not.
The Seahawks are certainly not the best team in the NFL, but Century Link Field (formerly, QWEST Field) has the most extreme acoustics for 12th man coverage in the nation. It's not uncommon for noise to stop play. Even for a lackluster team, fan noise lifts them up and intimidates their opponents.
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