I haven't seen any recent NFL Lines for the 2010 season. But, I'm willing to bet that Moss's presence factors greatly into the final odds placed on the Pats' chances to hoist the Lombardi trophy.
Here are some facts to chew on:
• Moss has 148 TDs in 12 years. That's second only to Jerry Rice - who owns the record with 197 TD catches. Unlike Rice, Moss probably won't play 20 years, but he’s very close to Rice’s pace (154 through 12 years) at the same point in his career.
• Moss has 14,465 yards. Hall of Famer Michael Irvin had 11,904 in his 12 year career. Oh...and Irvin had 65 TDs......less than half of Moss's total.
(Rice had over 17,600 yards at the same point in his career).
• Most WRs blossom in their 3rd year and look completely lost as rookies. In his rookie season, Moss had 1,300 yards and 17 TDs. Rice had 900 yards and 3 TDs. Irvin 650/5; Harrison 800/8; Chad Johnson 300/1.
• The only rookie who came close in recent years was, believe it or not, Terry Glenn with 1100 yards and 6 TDs. (Adj. 6/7/2010: I missed a few on this one. At least Boldin and Colston belong here as well.)
• In 1999, after getting absolutely torched by Moss in his rookie year the Green Bay Packers selected defensive backs in the 1st 3 rounds and another in the 7th. Think about that, they went into the 1999 draft with the specific intention of finding a way to stop Randy Moss - who was a rookie the year before!!!!!
The common belief is that a wide receiver is only as good as the quarterback throwing him the ball. While that's typically true, the most impressive piece of Moss's resume is how much better he has made each of his quarterbacks.
In hindsight, Brady's incredible season in 2007 seemed almost inevitable when you combined one of the best QBs of all time with Moss' incredible talents.
Here's a comparison of some of Moss' QBs throughout his career and their average stats with him and without him.
Per Game Key QB Statistics With Moss vs. Without Moss
|Player||Without Moss||With Moss|
Difference Per Game in Key QB Statistics With Moss MINUS Without Moss
The numbers are fairly telling. Each player's yards per attempt - the statistic that most closely correlates to points scored - jumped dramatically.
A few other facts about the QBs that have played with Moss
- Of the 4 qbs, only Jeff George did not break his career high in TD passes when he played with Moss. And that's because he only started 10 games - projected out over 16 games he would have crushed his career high.
- Brady was an outstanding player before Moss and you can't attribute all of the jump in his numbers to Moss. However, In Brady's two full seasons with Moss, he has throw for 4,806 and 4,398 yards. The top two outputs of his career.
- He has thrown for 50 TDs (an N.F.L. record - and his highest total by 22TDs) and 28TDs - tied for his second highest career total.
- Cunningham broke his career high for TD passes by four in his one season with Moss.
- Culpepper had 19 more TD passes in 2004 - his last year with Moss - than he has had in the five years since.....combined.
- Playing in place of an injured Tom Brady in 1998, Matt Cassel threw for almost 3,700 yards and had almost a 2:1 TD to Int ratio.
- In his one year in KC without Moss, Cassel threw for 700 fewer yards, had a 1:1 TD to Int ratio, and averaged 1.3 fewer yards per attempt (7.2 vs 5.9).
There are a few obvious caveats to the results of this analysis:
- I'm not including the Raiders years. There are a few reasons for that.
First, three different quarterbacks started at least eight games during his two years there. This made it difficult to tease out their production.
Secondly (and more imprtantly) Moss looked like a shell of himself during those years. Obviously, this waters down the results of his body of work. However, when Peter King named him a starter on his all-decade team, he wrote the following:
"Message to Moss: I am not happy, not at all, with your dog act in Oakland in 2006. It was petulant. But you've been such a great player for so long, and you continue to be a deep threat in your 12th season, and if you stay healthy and interested another four years playing with Tom Brady, you just might threaten Jerry Rice's all-time record of 208 touchdowns. Moss has to be here."I don't feel right simply ignoring those two years. But, at the same time, he was such a dominating player outside of those two years that you almost have to give him.........not quite a pass......but, maybe a mulligan?
- You can place extenuating circumstances with almost any of these statistics.