Third Down: Passing Yards vs Distance Index

See the full explanation of this metric in the New York Times Fifth Down Blog.

I've created a new index to measure third down success among quarterbacks. It’s pretty simple.
The calculation for the index is third down passing yards divided by yards needed for a first down.

So, if Tom Brady faces a 3rd and 5 and he completes a 10 yard pass, his index for that play is 2 (10/5). If Rodgers completes a 10 yard pass on 3rd and 10, his index is 1 (10/10).


Rank
Player
Index
1
Eli Manning
1.16
2
Drew Brees
1.15
3
Peyton Manning
1.10
4
Phillip Rivers
1.07
5
Brett Favre
1.02
6
Matt Schaub
0.97
7
Matt Ryan
0.95
8
Tom Brady
0.94
9
Aaron Rodgers
0.94
10
Carson Palmer
0.93
11
Jason Campbell
0.79
12
Kyle Orton
0.79
13
David Garrard
0.76
14
Joe Flacco
0.76
15
Jay Cutler
0.75
16
Matthew Stafford
0.74
17
Tony Romo
0.74
18
Kurt Warner
0.71
19
Ben Roethlisberger
0.70
20
Shaun Hill
0.66
21
Kerry Collins
0.66
22
Matt Hasselbeck
0.64
23
Josh Johnson
0.62
24
Mark Sanchez
0.62
25
Trent Edwards
0.61
26
Matt Cassel
0.60
27
Donovan McNabb
0.59
28
Marc Bulger
0.53
29
Chad Henne
0.52
30
Brady Quinn
0.51
31
Jake Delhomme
0.50
32
JaMarcus Russell
0.35
33
Derek Anderson
0.30

1 comment:

Packer Pete said...

I'm not sure about this metric. The yards past the first down distance aren't really relevant--the key is to get enough yards for the first down. As currently constructed, a 10 yard pass on 3rd and 2 gets an index of 5, but the more difficult pass is a 10 yard throw and 3rd and 8 as the shorter distance requires the defense to respect the run.

I would expect incompletes to be scored as a zero?

I think the percent converted weighted by distance would be a good measure.

Post a Comment