I've created a new index to measure third down success among quarterbacks. It’s pretty simple.
The calculation for the index is third down passing yards divided by yards needed for a first down.
So, if Tom Brady faces a 3rd and 5 and he completes a 10 yard pass, his index for that play is 2 (10/5). If Rodgers completes a 10 yard pass on 3rd and 10, his index is 1 (10/10).
| Rank | Player | Index |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Eli Manning | 1.16 |
| 2 | Drew Brees | 1.15 |
| 3 | Peyton Manning | 1.10 |
| 4 | Phillip Rivers | 1.07 |
| 5 | Brett Favre | 1.02 |
| 6 | Matt Schaub | 0.97 |
| 7 | Matt Ryan | 0.95 |
| 8 | Tom Brady | 0.94 |
| 9 | Aaron Rodgers | 0.94 |
| 10 | Carson Palmer | 0.93 |
| 11 | Jason Campbell | 0.79 |
| 12 | Kyle Orton | 0.79 |
| 13 | David Garrard | 0.76 |
| 14 | Joe Flacco | 0.76 |
| 15 | Jay Cutler | 0.75 |
| 16 | Matthew Stafford | 0.74 |
| 17 | Tony Romo | 0.74 |
| 18 | Kurt Warner | 0.71 |
| 19 | Ben Roethlisberger | 0.70 |
| 20 | Shaun Hill | 0.66 |
| 21 | Kerry Collins | 0.66 |
| 22 | Matt Hasselbeck | 0.64 |
| 23 | Josh Johnson | 0.62 |
| 24 | Mark Sanchez | 0.62 |
| 25 | Trent Edwards | 0.61 |
| 26 | Matt Cassel | 0.60 |
| 27 | Donovan McNabb | 0.59 |
| 28 | Marc Bulger | 0.53 |
| 29 | Chad Henne | 0.52 |
| 30 | Brady Quinn | 0.51 |
| 31 | Jake Delhomme | 0.50 |
| 32 | JaMarcus Russell | 0.35 |
| 33 | Derek Anderson | 0.30 |
1 comments:
I'm not sure about this metric. The yards past the first down distance aren't really relevant--the key is to get enough yards for the first down. As currently constructed, a 10 yard pass on 3rd and 2 gets an index of 5, but the more difficult pass is a 10 yard throw and 3rd and 8 as the shorter distance requires the defense to respect the run.
I would expect incompletes to be scored as a zero?
I think the percent converted weighted by distance would be a good measure.
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